Table 2 In-sample cross validation (for 2010 and 2011)
| Â | Â | Stochastic trend | Deterministic trend | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month | Actual (Test data) | Posterior mean | Posterior median | Posterior variance | Posterior mean | Posterior median | Posterior variance |
Jan-2010 | 7.145 | 7.148 | 7.158 | 0.0004 | 7.148 | 7.158 | 0.0004 |
Feb-2010 | 7.154 | 7.154 | 7.158 | 0.0001 | 7.151 | 7.158 | 0.0006 |
Mar-2010 | 7.158 | 7.157 | 7.158 | 0.0000 | 7.157 | 7.158 | 0.0000 |
Apr-2010 | 7.157 | 7.155 | 7.158 | 0.0001 | 7.155 | 7.158 | 0.0000 |
May-2010 | 7.130 | 7.112 | 7.119 | 0.0013 | 7.120 | 7.122 | 0.0003 |
Jun-2010 | 6.814 | 6.823 | 6.865 | 0.0419 | 6.881 | 6.901 | 0.0173 |
Jul-2010 | 6.192 | 6.077 | 6.147 | 0.2322 | 6.206 | 6.234 | 0.1054 |
Aug-2010 | 5.061 | 4.886 | 4.944 | 0.5817 | 4.923 | 4.917 | 0.2896 |
Sep-2010 | 4.181 | 4.174 | 4.200 | 0.7522 | 4.072 | 4.074 | 0.2886 |
Oct-2010 | 5.555 | 5.586 | 5.667 | 0.4638 | 5.248 | 5.278 | 0.2480 |
Nov-2010 | 6.864 | 6.808 | 6.863 | 0.0693 | 6.828 | 6.863 | 0.0406 |
Dec-2010 | 7.137 | 7.108 | 7.138 | 0.0061 | 7.127 | 7.144 | 0.0022 |
Jan-2011 | 7.158 | 7.145 | 7.158 | 0.0007 | 7.148 | 7.158 | 0.0004 |
Feb-2011 | 7.158 | 7.153 | 7.158 | 0.0001 | 7.151 | 7.158 | 0.0003 |
Mar-2011 | 7.158 | 7.157 | 7.158 | 0.0000 | 7.157 | 7.158 | 0.0000 |
Apr-2011 | 7.157 | 7.154 | 7.158 | 0.0001 | 7.155 | 7.158 | 0.0000 |
May-2011 | 7.126 | 7.105 | 7.118 | 0.0029 | 7.119 | 7.121 | 0.0003 |
Jun-2011 | 6.786 | 6.777 | 6.856 | 0.0962 | 6.872 | 6.889 | 0.0173 |
Jul-2011 | 5.758 | 5.983 | 6.140 | 0.4925 | 6.185 | 6.208 | 0.1069 |
Aug-2011 | 4.587 | 4.792 | 4.907 | 1.0733 | 4.872 | 4.867 | 0.3136 |
Sep-2011 | 3.911 | 4.091 | 4.130 | 1.3271 | 3.984 | 3.981 | 0.3035 |
Oct-2011 | 5.082 | 5.479 | 5.628 | 0.8492 | 5.150 | 5.181 | 0.2711 |
Nov-2011 | 6.819 | 6.756 | 6.848 | 0.1338 | 6.808 | 6.845 | 0.0478 |
Dec-2011 | 7.155 | 7.100 | 7.139 | 0.0097 | 7.124 | 7.142 | 0.0024 |