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Table 3 Predictive fit (L-criterion) and predictive checks, sea ice extent models, central Arctic ocean

From: Modelling changes in Arctic Sea Ice Cover: an application of generalized and inflated beta and gamma densities

 

Trend model

 

Stochastic

Deterministic

In-sample fit (1979-2009)

2.77

3.96

 

Stochastic

Deterministic

Cross validation fit (2010-11)

2.54

1.57

 

% of observations within 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions

 

Stochastic

Deterministic

In-sample period

97.8

97.6

Cross-validation period

100.0

100.0