Table 4 Deterministic trend parameters
| Â | Posterior summary | Â | Â |
|---|---|---|---|
Short term lag parameters | Mean | 2.5% | 97.5% |
γ 21 | -0.475 | -1.971 | 0.833 |
γ 22 | -0.455 | -2.074 | 0.960 |
γ 23 | 0.344 | -0.310 | 0.947 |
γ 24 | 0.166 | -0.227 | 0.668 |
γ 25 | 0.823 | 0.305 | 1.303 |
γ 26 | 0.516 | 0.191 | 0.939 |
γ 27 | 0.907 | 0.348 | 1.821 |
γ 28 | 2.004 | 1.453 | 2.431 |
γ 29 | 3.222 | 2.580 | 3.926 |
γ 2,10 | 2.999 | 1.552 | 4.394 |
γ 2,11 | 1.110 | -0.186 | 2.390 |
γ 2,12 | 0.545 | -1.110 | 1.875 |
Linear trend guide parameters by period | Mean | 2.5% | 97.5% |
Γ11 | -0.028 | -0.048 | -0.007 |
Γ12 | -0.019 | -0.029 | -0.008 |
Γ13 | -0.028 | -0.036 | -0.019 |
Γ21 | -0.037 | -0.061 | -0.017 |
Γ22 | -0.025 | -0.036 | -0.016 |
Γ23 | -0.034 | -0.043 | -0.026 |
Precision trends η2m | Mean | 2.5% | 97.5% |
η21 | 0.028 | -0.024 | 0.072 |
η 22 | 0.092 | 0.033 | 0.134 |
η 23 | 0.233 | 0.122 | 0.308 |
η 24 | 0.068 | 0.011 | 0.113 |
η 25 | 0.064 | 0.030 | 0.097 |
η 26 | 0.000 | -0.034 | 0.031 |
η 27 | -0.021 | -0.052 | 0.009 |
η 28 | -0.023 | -0.058 | 0.009 |
η 29 | 0.005 | -0.035 | 0.041 |
η 2,10 | -0.017 | -0.059 | 0.016 |
η 2,11 | -0.026 | -0.060 | 0.005 |
η 2,12 | 0.001 | -0.033 | 0.031 |