Modelling changes in Arctic Sea Ice Cover: an application of generalized and inflated beta and gamma densities

Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications

Table 6 Posterior predictive loss, sea ice extent model, sea of Okhotsk

	Trend model
	Stochastic	Deterministic
In-sample fit (1979-2009)	2.95	2.43
	Stochastic	Deterministic
Cross validation fit (2010-11)	1.11	0.68
	% of observations within 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions
	Stochastic	Deterministic
In-sample period	97.6	97.6
Cross-validation period	100.0	95.8